Climate Change Affects the Vulnerability of Belarusian Lakes to External Impact

Abstract

The investigation of lakes’ vulnerability to external impacts is essential for understanding and potentially mitigating the threats they face. By studying how lakes are affected by external factors, such as pollution, climate change and human activities, we can assess the health of the ecosystem and predict how it may respond to future changes. The purpose of this research is the analysis of climate change’s influence on the vulnerability of Belarusian lakes to external impact. The vulnerability indices were calculated using the randomized aggregate method. The dependences between parameters were defined on the basis of correlation and regression analysis. We investigated the vulnerability of 149 Belarusian lakes. Classifying the lakes allowed us to divide them into three types, with high, medium and low vulnerability to external impact. All the types include 2–3 subtypes. On the basis of classification, we created a zoning scheme for Belarus on the vulnerability of lakes to external impact. A forecast of lake vulnerability for three SSP scenarios to 2100 was conducted. In the SSP1 scenario, the vulnerability of stratified lakes will increase insignificantly. The vulnerability of homothermous lakes will not change. In the SSP2 scenario, the vulnerability of lakes will first increase then decrease. Lakes with high and medium vulnerability will be classed as medium- and low-vulnerable. In the SSP5 scenario, the vulnerability of lakes will decrease more significantly than in the other scenarios.