The Relative Roles of Ambient Temperature and Mobility Patterns in Shaping the Transmission Heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan

Abstract

We assess the effects of ambient temperature and mobility patterns on the transmissibility of COVID-19 during the epidemiological years of the pandemic in Japan. The prefecture-specific daily time-series of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, meteorological variables, levels of retail and recreation mobility (e.g., activities, going to restaurants, cafes, and shopping centers), and the number of vaccinations were collected for six prefectures in Japan from 1 May 2020 to 31 March 2022. We combined standard time-series generalized additive models (GAMs) with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to determine the exposure–lag–response association between the time-varying effective reproductive number (Rt), ambient temperature, and retail and recreation mobility, while controlling for a wide range of potential confounders. Utilizing a statistical model, the first distribution of the mean ambient temperature (i.e., −4.9 °C) was associated with an 11.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.9–17.7%) increase in Rt compared to the optimum ambient temperature (i.e., 18.5 °C). A retail and recreation mobility of 10.0% (99th percentile) was associated with a 19.6% (95% CI: 12.6–27.1%) increase in Rt over the optimal level (i.e., −16.0%). Our findings provide a better understanding of how ambient temperature and mobility patterns shape severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. These findings provide valuable epidemiological insights for public health policies in controlling disease transmission.