About Linda Again: How Narratives and Group Reasoning Can Influence Conjunction Fallacy

Abstract

Conjunction fallacy (together with other systematic reasoning errors) is usually explained in terms of the dual process theory of reasoning: Biases should be ascribed to fast and automatic processes, whereas slow and deliberative processes are responsible of producing answers that are correct with respect of normative criterion. The dual process theory is related to Bruner’s distinction between narrative and paradigmatic thought: Both modes of thought can be characterized by the two different processes of reasoning. In this paper, we explore the role of Bruner’s mode of thought manipulating also the difference between group vs individual reasoning. We observed that the narrative strategy of response induces more wrong answers. However, narrative-based strategies have higher effectiveness in the case of group reasoning. Our results suggest that narrative reasoning and group reasoning may induce violations of the conjunction rule when acceptable by the verisimilitude of the story. Five models are also presented in order to predict answer correctness and strategy of reasoning using a text analysis software.