Affiliation:
1. College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250358, China
2. Collaborative Innovation Center of Human-Nature and Green Development in Universities of Shandong, Jinan 250358, China
Abstract
Currently, Chinese cities are experiencing both overall growth and localized shrinkage. Therefore, it becomes crucial to quantify urban shrinkage and explore the transformation and sustainable development of shrinking cities from the perspective of urban resilience. This study focuses on the three provinces of Northeast China, which are representative areas of urban shrinkage, as its research subjects. Employing the analytic hierarchy process, a comprehensive evaluation system for urban shrinkage is constructed based on three dimensions: population, economy, and space. Furthermore, urban resilience is scientifically measured from four aspects: economy, society, ecology, and infrastructure. The study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of urban shrinkage and urban resilience in the three northeastern provinces from 2012 to 2018. It also examines the impact of urban shrinkage on urban resilience through regression analysis and mediation models. The results indicate the following: (1) Half of the cities in the three northeastern provinces experienced shrinkage, although the extent of shrinkage decreased with the implementation of the Northeast China revitalization strategy. Population-related shrinkage was the most extensive and continued to expand, while economy-related shrinkage was the most severe, and space-related shrinkage was the least severe. (2) The resilience of shrinking cities was lower than the average level. Population-shrinking cities and economy-shrinking cities exhibited low levels of economic resilience, and the gap between them continued to widen. Space-shrinking cities generally had low infrastructure resilience. (3) The urban shrinkage index had a significant positive impact on the urban resilience index, mediated through intermediary variables, such as innovation capability and cultural development. Notably, both the direct and indirect effects of innovation capability were the greatest. Population-related shrinkage had the largest impact on urban resilience, while more intermediary variables of economy-related shrinkage passed the significance test.
Funder
Major Project of Key Research Bases for Humanities and Social Sciences Funded by the Ministry of Education of China
Key Research and Development Plan of Shandong Province
National Natural Science Foundation of China Youth Science Foundation Project
Subject
Nature and Landscape Conservation,Ecology,Global and Planetary Change
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