Simplified and High Accessibility Approach for the Rapid Assessment of Deforestation in Developing Countries: A Case of Timor-Leste

Abstract

Forests are essential for sustaining ecosystems, regulating the climate, and providing economic benefits to human society. However, activities such as commercial practices, fuelwood collection, and land use changes have resulted in severe forest degradation and deforestation. Timor-Leste, a small island nation, faces environmental sustainability challenges due to land use changes, limited infrastructure, and agricultural practices. This study proposes a simplified and highly accessible approach to assess deforestation (SHAD) nationally using limited human and non-human resources such as experts, software, and hardware facilities. To assess deforestation in developing countries, we utilize open-source software (Dryad), employ the U-Net deep learning algorithm, and utilize open-source data generated from the Google Earth Engine platform to construct a time-series land cover classification model for Timor-Leste. In addition, we utilize the open-source land cover map as label data and satellite imagery as model training inputs, and our model demonstrates satisfactory performance in classifying time-series land cover. Next, we classify the land cover in Timor-Leste for 2016 and 2021, and verified that the forest classification achieved high accuracy ranging from 0.79 to 0.89. Thereafter, we produced a deforestation map by comparing the two land cover maps. The estimated deforestation rate was 1.9% annually with a primary concentration in the northwestern municipalities of Timor-Leste with dense population and human activities. This study demonstrates the potential of the SHAD approach to assess deforestation nationwide, particularly in countries with limited scientific experts and infrastructure. We anticipate that our study will support the development of management strategies for ecosystem sustainability, climate adaptation, and the conservation of economic benefits in various fields.