Fiducial Lower Confidence Limit of Reliability for a Power Distribution System

Abstract

Reliability performance, especially the lower confidence limit of reliability, plays an important role in system risk and safety assessment. A good estimator of the lower confidence limit of system reliability can help engineers to make the right decisions. Based on the lifetime of the key component in a typical satellite intelligent power distribution system, the generalized fiducial method is adopted to estimate the lower confidence limit of the system reliability in this paper. First, the generalized pivotal quantity and the lower confidence limit of reliability for the key component are derived for the lifetimes of the exponential-type and Weibull-type components. Simulations show that the sample median is more appropriate than the sample mean when the lower confidence limit of reliability is estimated. Moreover, the lower confidence limit of reliability is obtained for the typical satellite intelligent power distribution system through the pseudo-lifetime data of the metallic oxide semiconductor field effect transistor. The lower confidence limit of reliability for this power distribution system at 15 years is 0.998, which meets the factory’s reliability requirement. Finally, through the comparison, a hot standby subsystem can be substituted with a cold standby subsystem to increase the lower confidence limit of the system reliability.