Vehicle Trajectory Prediction via Urban Network Modeling

Abstract

Taxis are an important component of the transportation system, and empty taxis represent a significant waste of transportation resources. To alleviate the imbalance between supply and demand and relieve traffic congestion, real-time prediction of taxi trajectories is necessary. Most existing trajectory prediction studies focus on extracting time-series information but do not capture spatial information sufficiently. In this paper, we focus on the construction of an urban network and propose an urban topology-encoding spatiotemporal attention network (UTA) to address destination prediction problems. Firstly, this model discretizes the production and attraction units of transportation, combining them with key nodes in the road network to form an urban topological network. Secondly, GPS records are matched to the urban topological map to construct a topological trajectory, which significantly improves trajectory consistency and endpoint certainty, helping to model destination prediction problems. Thirdly, semantic information concerning surrounding space is attached to effectively mine the spatial dependencies of trajectories. Finally, after the topological encoding of city space and trajectories, this algorithm proposes a topological graph neural network to model the attention calculation with the trajectory context, comprehensively considering the spatiotemporal characteristics of the trajectories and improving prediction accuracy. We solve the prediction problems with the UTA model and also compare it with some other classical models, such as the HMM, RNN, LSTM, and transformer. The results suggest that all the models work well in combination with the proposed urban model (with a rough increase of 2%), while the UTA model is less affected by data sparsity.