Quantitative Assessment of Typhoon Disaster Risk at County Level

Abstract

Using the historical disaster records of 28 typhoons in Cangnan County since 2000, combining typhoon paths and hazard-bearing bodies data and based on the theoretical framework of climate change risk, the social and economic risks of typhoon disasters in Cangnan County with four intensity levels—severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, and super typhoon—were quantitatively assessed. The results show that with the increase in typhoon disaster intensity, the spatial pattern of typhoon disaster hazard in Cangnan County changes from high in the west and low in the east to high in the south and low in the north. Super typhoons mainly affected Mazhan town and Dailing town in the south. The vulnerability shows an obvious upward trend. Super typhoons cause more than 40% of the population to be affected, more than 20% of direct economic losses and house collapse, and nearly 30% of crops to be affected in Cangnan County. The spatial pattern of risks that typhoon disasters have on populations, economies, crops, and houses change from low in south and high in north to high in north and south, and these risks increase gradually. The comprehensive risk of typhoon disasters is higher in the north and lower in the south, with the risk level being higher in the central and northern regions.