Dynamic Calculation Approach of the Collision Risk in Complex Navigable Water

Abstract

It is vital to analyze ship collision risk for preventing collisions and improving safety at sea. This paper takes Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, a typical complex navigable water, as the research object. Firstly, a probabilistic conflict detection method based on an AIS data-driven dynamic ship domain model is proposed to achieve effective ship conflict detection under uncertain environments. Then, a ship group identification method is proposed, which can extract the ship groups with conflict correlation and space compactness. Finally, according to the characteristics of ship traffic in complex navigable waters, the dynamic calculation of ship collision risk is carried out from individual, regional, and local multi-scale perspectives. The experimental results show that the proposed method can detect the collision risk in a timely, reliable, and effective manner under complex dynamic conditions. As such, they provide valuable insights into ship collision risk prediction and the development of risk mitigation measures.