Temporal Pattern Analysis of Cropland Phenology in Shandong Province of China Based on Two Long-Sequence Remote Sensing Data

Abstract

Vegetation phenology dynamics have attracted worldwide attention due to its direct response to global climate change and the great influence on terrestrial carbon budgets and ecosystem productivity in the past several decades. However, most studies have focused on phenology investigation on natural vegetation, and only a few have explored phenology variation of cropland. In this study, taking the typical cropland in the Shandong province of China as the target, we analyzed the temporal pattern of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and phenology metrics (growing season start (SOS) and end (EOS)) derived from the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS) 3-generation version 1 (1982–2015) and the Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) version 4 (1981–2016), and then investigated the influence of climate factors and Net Primary Production (NPP, only for EOS) on SOS/EOS. Results show a consistent seasonal profile and interannual variation trend of NDVI for the two products. Annual average NDVI has significantly increased since 1980s, and hugely augmentations of NDVI were detected from March to June for both NDVI products (p < 0.01), which indicates a consistent greening tendency of the study region. SOSs from both products are correlated well with the ground-observed wheat elongation and spike date and have significantly advanced since the 1980s, with almost the same changing rate (0.65/0.64 days yr-1, p < 0.01). EOS also exhibits an earlier but weak advancing trend. Due to the significant advance of SOS, the growing season duration has significantly lengthened. Spring precipitation has a relatively stronger influence on SOS than temperature and shortwave radiation, while a greater correlation coefficient was diagnosed between EOS and autumn temperature/shortwave radiation than precipitation/NDVI. Autumn NPP exhibits a nonlinear effect on EOS, which is first earlier and then later with the increase of autumn NPP. Overall, we highlight the similar capacity of the two NDVI products in characterizing the temporal patterns of cropland phenology.