Mathematical Analysis of the Reliability of Modern Trolleybuses and Electric Buses

Abstract

The rhythmic and stable operation of trolleybuses and autonomous trolleybuses or urban electric buses, depends to a large extent on the reliability of the equipment installed on the trolleybus. The actual operational reliability of trolleybus electrical equipment (EE) depends on its technical condition. Under the influence of external factors and specific operating modes, the technical condition of the equipment is continuously deteriorating, reliability indicators are decreasing, and the number of failures is increasing. Using the mathematical theory of reliability, probability theory and mathematical statistics, numerical methods of solving nonlinear and transcendental equations, this article defines the conditions of diagnostics depending on the intensity of failures and the given probability of failure-free operation of the equipment. Additionally, the inverse problem of determining the current reliability of electrical engineering systems depends on the terms of diagnostics and the intensity of failures being solved. As a result of the processing of statistical information on failures it is established that for the electrical equipment of a trolleybus, after a number of repair measures, the maximum density of failures occurs at a lower mileage, and the probability of failure-free operation can vary depending on the degree of wear of the equipment, i.e., on the number of previous failures. It is theoretically substantiated and experimentally confirmed that the reliability of trolleybus electrical equipment changes according to the exponential law of distribution of a random variable. It has been established that the real averaged diagnostic terms regulated by instructions are not optimal in most cases and differ several times from those defined in this paper. The dependence of switching equipment run-in on time has been clarified, which served as a prerequisite for specifying the inter-repair period for various types of trolleybus electrical equipment. A method of adjustment of the inter-repair time for the electrical equipment of trolleybuses is proposed.