A Novel Approach to Assessing Carrying Capacity for Development by Combining Socio-Economic and Environmental Indicators: A Case Study in Greece

Abstract

Carrying capacity for development refers to the maximum level of economic and social growth that an environment can support without experiencing significant degradation or collapse. This concept integrates environmental and socioeconomic dimensions to ensure sustainable development. In the present work, we have combined climate reanalysis data sets with environmental and socioeconomic indicators to develop a novel index, the Carrying Capacity Development Index (CCDI). Thus, the Human Modification Index (HMI) and the Vulnerability to Disasters Index (VDI) were examined as part of the socioeconomic dimension of the CCDI, while selected ERA5 land layers combined with Natura 2000 sites formed the environmental elements. The methodology is demonstrated in Greece, where economic development in sectors such as tourism, transport and energy are threatening fragile Mediterranean ecosystems. Three different weightings were analyzed, giving equal weight to environmental and socioeconomic factors, or giving more weight to either the environment, society or the economy. The results showed that the methodology has a minor sensitivity to weighting and highlighted areas where future development objectives should be focused.