Impact Factors of Industrial Pollution and Carbon Reduction under the “Dual Carbon” Target: A Case Study of Urban Aggregation in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta

Abstract

China is facing pressure to reduce carbon emissions and control pollution. Promoting the synergy between pollution reduction and carbon reduction has become an inevitable choice to achieve the construction of a beautiful China and meet the dual carbon target. This study examines the main factors influencing industrial pollution and carbon reduction in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) and Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomerations based on data on industrial CO2 and local air pollutants (LAP) from 2002 to 2021, using the random forest regression model. The results indicate that (1) industrial CO2 emissions have increased overall, while intensity has decreased. Additionally, both industrial LAP emissions and intensity have decreased. (2) The main factor influencing industrial CO2 and LAP emissions is the proportion of industrial value added above the scale. Additionally, the proportion of R&D internal expenditure in GDP and total trade imports and exports are the main influencing factors of industrial CO2 emissions. The industrial fume and dust removal rate mainly affects industrial LAP emissions. (3) There is a clear non-linear relationship between industrial CO2- and LAP-influencing factors and emissions, which can be attributed to the scale effect factor, the lagging effect of R&D expenditure, and the inappropriate treatment of the “three wastes” by relevant departments that is non-linear. The urban agglomerations of PRD and YRD should prioritize the reduction of carbon emissions, upgrading and transforming their industrial structures, promoting the impact of foreign trade on pollution and carbon reduction, and achieving a balance between sustainable economic development and environmental protection.