Deep Learning-Based Carbon Emission Forecasting and Peak Carbon Pathways in China’s Logistics Industry

Abstract

As a major energy-consuming industry, energy conservation and emission reduction in the logistics industry are critical to China’s timely achievement of its dual-carbon goals of “carbon peaking” by 2030 and “carbon neutrality” by 2060. Based on deep learning, Random Forest (RF) was used to screen out the key factors affecting carbon emissions in the logistics industry, and the Whale Algorithm-optimized Radial Basis Function Neural Network (WOA-RBF) was proposed. The Monte Carlo simulation predicted the future evolution trends of each key factor under the three scenarios of baseline scenario (BAU), policy regulation scenario (PR), and technological breakthrough scenario (TB) and accurately predicted the carbon emission trends of the logistics industry from 2023 to 2035 by using the most probable future values of each influencing factor as inputs to the WOA-RBF prediction model. The results of the study demonstrate that fixed asset investment (LFI), population (P), total energy consumption (E), energy consumption per unit of value added of the logistics industry (EIL), share of oil consumption (OR), and share of railway freight turnover (RTR) are the key factors influencing the logistics industry’s carbon emissions. Monte Carlo simulations can effectively reflect the uncertainty of future changes in these key factors. In comparison to the BAU and PR scenarios, the TB scenario, with the combined incentives of national policy regulation and technology innovation, is the most likely for the logistics industry to meet the “Peak Carbon” goal baseline scenario.