Risk Perceptions and Amplification Effects over Time: Evaluating Fukushima Longitudinal Surveys

Abstract

Despite the vast body of literature addressing public risk perceptions of technological disasters such as nuclear accidents, longitudinal studies comparing pre- and post-disaster attitudes are scarce. This study examines (a) how perception factors such as concern, risk, political saliency, trust, and attitudes toward energy policies related to nuclear power changed over time and among different populations, and (b) if social amplification and ripple effects were present after the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster in Japan. The article compares 2010 survey data collected before the nuclear accident with data collected in 2013 and 2016. The analysis shows a clear trend regarding concern over nuclear power. Levels of concern and political saliency increased in the aftermath of the nuclear disaster but declined in 2016. These findings indicate amplification effects between the pre-disaster survey in 2010 and the first follow-up survey in 2013. However, the 2016 data indicate the Fukushima accident only had a significant short-term impact on public risk perceptions. The data also indicate high levels of uncertainty regarding trust and future energy policies. The high levels of uncertainty present an opportunity for nuclear power supporters and opponents alike to shape Japan’s future energy policy through well-crafted communication and outreach programs.