Simulated Ecosystem and Farm-Level Economic Impacts of Conservation Tillage in a Northeastern Iowa County

Abstract

While the ecological benefits of no-till are largely indisputable, the economic impacts are less certain, and the latter may be partly to blame for lower-than-expected adoption of no-till. In this study, we contribute to a better understanding of the ecosystem and farm-level economic impacts of no-till, with Buchanan County in the northeastern region of the U.S. State of Iowa as the backdrop due to previously established data and model validation efforts in that region. Using the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) and Farm Economic Model (FEM), we simulated two tillage scenarios—a conservation tillage baseline and no-till—for continuous corn and corn–soybean rotations in Buchanan County using gridded historical climate data. We find that no-till provides clear ecosystem benefits, except that soluble nutrient losses might actually rise. We also find that under current commodity prices for corn and soybeans, no-till is not as profitable as the conservation tillage baseline. For no-till to be at least as profitable as the baseline under current commodity prices, the yield penalty associated with no-till cannot be higher than 1.5% for corn and 0.8% for soybeans, or similar combinations that entail a revenue penalty of about $24,000 for an 809-hectare continuous corn or corn–soybean operation. Given the simulated yield penalties associated with no-till, corn and soybean prices would have to be substantially lower in order for no-till to break even. Consequently, incentives for conservation practice implementation may need to be tied to commodity prices and yield penalties in order to elicit greater adoption rates.