An Attempt to Determine the Relationship between Air Pollution and the Real Estate Market in 2010–2020 in Gdańsk Using GLM and GRM Statistical Models

Abstract

World economic development, technological progress, and irrational exploitation of natural resources have intensified the negative effects of economic activity, which causes more attention to be paid to environmental pollution and the deterioration of the standard of living. Therefore, over the past few years, the concept of sustainable development has experienced a period of increased interest, accompanied by changes in the attitudes and expectations of all market participants. The article attempts to analyse the relationship between air pollution and selected parameters of the residential market in Gdansk in 2010–2020. The study considered the peculiarities of the region due to its geographical location. To identify the effects of air pollution, the GLM (generalised linear models) and GRM (generalised regression models) were used with a progressive stepwise regression method. Based on the results, it was found that the existing air pollution and climatic conditions in Gdańsk have an impact on the number of apartments sold and their prices. All models were identified for the first time for monthly data, and prices were taken from the real estate sale contracts database. These indicate the advantage and novelty of the study. In addition, this paper is the first in a series of publications examining the impact of air pollution on the real estate market in Poland’s largest agglomerations. From the main model following results were obtained: (1) A statistically significant (p ≤ 0.05) factor affecting the number of sales of premises above 80 m2 on the secondary market is PM2.5. With an increase in PM2.5 by 10 µg/m3, the number of sold apartments above 80 m2 decreases on average by slightly more than 20. (2) The interaction (p ≤ 0.05) of O3 (ozone) and PM2.5 on the number of transactions affects the secondary market of flats with an area of 60–80 m2. Simultaneous to the decrease in the concentrations of O3 and PM2.5 is an increase in the number of sales of apartments in the given size in Gdańsk. (3) Simultaneous to the decrease in PM10 and NO2 concentrations due to the increased urban traffic is an increase in the price of 1 m2 of residential premises with an area of 40 m2 on the secondary market in Gdańsk.