Changes in the Water Area of an Inland River Terminal Lake (Taitma Lake) Driven by Climate Change and Human Activities, 2017–2022

Abstract

Constructed from a dataset capturing the seasonal and annual water body distribution of the lower Qarqan River in the Taitma Lake area from 2017 to 2022, and combined with the meteorological and hydraulic engineering data, the spatial and temporal change patterns of the Taitma Lake watershed area were determined. Analyses were conducted using Planetscope (PS) satellite images and a deep learning model. The results revealed the following: ① Deep learning-based water body extraction provides significantly greater accuracy than the conventional water body index approach. With an impressive accuracy of up to 96.0%, UPerNet was found to provide the most effective extraction results among the three convolutional neural networks (U-Net, DeeplabV3+, and UPerNet) used for semantic segmentation; ② Between 2017 and 2022, Taitma Lake’s water area experienced a rapid decrease, with the distribution of water predominantly shifting towards the east–west direction more than the north–south. The shifts between 2017 and 2020 and between 2020 and 2022 were clearly discernible, with the latter stage (2020–2022) being more significant than the former (2017–2020); ③ According to observations, Taitma Lake’s changing water area has been primarily influenced by human activity over the last six years. Based on the research findings of this paper, it was observed that this study provides a valuable scientific basis for water resource allocation aiming to balance the development of water resources in the middle and upper reaches of the Tarim and Qarqan Rivers, as well as for the ecological protection of the downstream Taitma Lake.