Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge Using Hydrological Modeling in the Choushui River Alluvial Fan, Taiwan

Abstract

This research delves into the crucial role of groundwater in underpinning ecosystems and human resilience amidst drastic and unpredictable climate change, particularly as water resources face increasing sustainability concerns due to population surges and climate change. Utilizing a combined approach of SWAT-MODFLOW models, we estimate the streamflow discharge and groundwater recharge in the Choushui River Alluvial Fan, Taiwan. These models allow evaluation of the distribution and proportion of recharge areas as well as the accuracy and the potential influence of future climate change scenarios on groundwater recharge. The findings show a strong correlation between the simulation and actual observations, evidenced by the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients (NSE) of 0.920 and 0.846 for calibration and validation in the Choushui River, and 0.549 and 0.548 for the Pei-Kang River, respectively. The model demonstrates a reliable representation of the watershed response, supported by robust statistical performance. The analysis reveals the variable impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge, dependent on the chosen scenario and period. Some scenarios indicate that the maximum observed increase in groundwater recharge is 66.36% under the RCP2.6 scenario in the long-term period (2061–2080), while the minimum observed increase is 29.67% under the RCP4.5 scenario in the initial time frame; however, all demonstrate a decrease ranging from 23.05% to 41.92% across different RCPs in the impact of climate change over time, suggesting a potential long-term decrease in the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge. This study provides indispensable insights into the spatial hotspots in the top fan and the potential range of impact rates of climate change on groundwater recharge, underscoring the importance of continuous research and the thorough evaluation of multiple scenarios. Moreover, we establish a primary framework for using a top-ranked MIROC5 projection of general circulation models (GCMs) to delineate an essential premise that facilitates the advanced exploration of alternative scenario augmentations, bolstering the comprehensive investigation of climate change impacts on groundwater recharge. It is proposed that these findings serve as a guidepost for sustainable water resource management and policy-making in the face of climate change and escalating water demand.