How to Improve the Market Penetration of New Energy Vehicles in China: An Agent-Based Model with a Three-Level Variables Structure

Abstract

This paper develops an agent-based model with linking variables (ABML) to investigate the influencing factors for the new energy vehicles (NEVs) market in China. The ABML is a framework with three-level variables including micro, linking, and macro variables, which can reduce the complexity of the simulation. The emergence from bottom to top occurs between linking and macro variables, while the best–worst scaling describes the mapping between micro and linking variables. In the case study, Rookie, Veteran, and New Generation consumers are assumed as the three types of consumers in China’s market. A specification of the three types of variables is presented, where the value of linking variables obeys uniform distribution. By introducing the population density and the interaction frequency, the number of agents is determined with an experiment. All parameters in the model are estimated by calibrating the realistic vehicle sales. We compare different scenarios and obtain some management insights for improving the market penetration of NEVs in China.