Predicting Blood Glucose Concentration after Short-Acting Insulin Injection Using Discontinuous Injection Records

Abstract

Diabetes is an increasingly common disease that poses an immense challenge to public health. Hyperglycemia is also a common complication in clinical patients in the intensive care unit, increasing the rate of infection and mortality. The accurate and real-time prediction of blood glucose concentrations after each short-acting insulin injection has great clinical significance and is the basis of all intelligent blood glucose control systems. Most previous prediction methods require long-term continuous blood glucose records from specific patients to train the prediction models, resulting in these methods not being used in clinical practice. In this study, we construct 13 deep neural networks with different architectures to atomically predict blood glucose concentrations after arbitrary independent insulin injections without requiring continuous historical records of any patient. Using our proposed models, the best root mean square error of the prediction results reaches 15.82 mg/dL, and 99.5% of the predictions are clinically acceptable, which is more accurate than previously proposed blood glucose prediction methods. Through the re-validation of the models, we demonstrate the clinical practicability and universal accuracy of our proposed prediction method.