The Impact of Climate Change on Evapotranspiration and Flow in a Major Basin in Northern Mexico

Abstract

Climate defines the hydrological cycle of each region and climate change will undoubtedly affect the recharge processes of the world’s water tables and the water resources currently available at the basin and microbasin scale. The objective of the present paper is to evaluate future changes in evapotranspiration and flows from the Sardinas River basin in North Durango, Mexico. The Rural Genius Model (GR2M) is an aggregated monthly hydrological model, which is used to reconstruct flows from precipitation and evapotranspiration by applying two functions: a production function and a transfer function. A transfer function has been used under four shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (126, 245, 370, and 585). Pettitt and Mann–Kendall statistical tests were used to determine trends, which were identified by the breakpoint in the evapotranspiration and flow time series. Results showed that under climate change scenarios, evapotranspiration shows an increase over time. Under the climate scenario, SSP 126, and the application of the statistical test in the flow series show an increasing trend with a break in May for 2090, with a mean of 1658 mm before and 2238 mm after the break, with an excess of 34.98%. The flow under the SSP 245 climate scenario predicts a mean flow of 1703.11 mm and a break in May of the 2090 horizon, with a mean before and after the break of 1624 mm and 2168 mm, respectively, with an excess of 33.49%. Under the SSP 370 scenario, the mean is expected to be 1710.81 mm, with a break in May 2090, before and after means of 1633 mm and 2166 mm, respectively, with an excess of 32.63%. Under climate change scenario SSP 585, the mean expected will be 1701.43 mm and the break in the flow series will occur in May of the 2090 horizon, with a mean of 1628 mm before the break and 2132 mm after, with a flow excess of 30.95%. The results of this study can be a basis for decision-makers for better management and protection of water resources in northern Durango, Mexico.