Model for the Failure Prediction Mechanism of In-Service Pipelines Based on IoT Technology

Abstract

With the rapid increase in pipeline mileage in China, the accurate prediction of corrosion issues in in-service pipelines has become crucial for ensuring safe pipeline operation. Traditional pipeline leakage monitoring methods are significantly limited by human factors and equipment precision, making it challenging to predict and identify leakage points accurately. Therefore, aligned with the trend of intelligent pipeline development, this study aims to construct a failure pressure prediction mechanism model for corroded pipelines based on IoT technology. This model leverages intelligent sensing and prediction to assess the safety status of corroded pipeline sections. Ultrasonic phased array technology detects specific corrosion points and detailed defect parameters within pipeline sections. The parameters are then utilized in the Simdroid domestic finite element analysis model to simulate the ultimate burst pressure of the pipeline. A single-variable approach is employed to analyze the sensitivity of different parameters to the pipeline’s ultimate burst pressure, with the minimum burst pressure point of multi-point corroded sections selected as the overall segment failure pressure. Finite element simulation data are integrated into a neural network database to predict the pipeline failure pressure. The real-time operational data of the pipeline are monitored using negative-pressure wave sensing. The operational pressure of the corroded points is compared with the algorithm-predicted failure pressure; if the values approach a critical threshold, an alarm is triggered. Moreover, the remote control terminals evaluate the pipeline’s self-rescue time, providing a buffer for pipeline leakage self-rescue. The failure prediction mechanism model for in-service pipelines was applied to the Fujian–Guangdong branch of the West–East Gas Pipeline III to verify its accuracy and feasibility. The research results offer technical support for the maintenance and emergency repair of pipeline leakage scenarios, leveraging intelligent pipeline technology to reduce costs and increase the efficiency of pipeline operations, thereby supporting the sustainable development of China’s oil and gas pipelines with theoretical and technical backing.