Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Soybean Production in Heilongjiang Province, China

Abstract

Heilongjiang Province, as the largest production and supply base for high-quality soybeans in China, plays a vital role in optimizing the layout of soybean production and promoting the revitalization of the soybean industry. Soybean yield is used as a key indicator of soybean production. This study integrated soybean yield data from agricultural reclamation systems and local authorities. A variety of statistical analysis methods, such as barycenter analysis, the Mann–Kendall test, the space–time cube, and grey relational analysis, were used to research the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of soybean production in Heilongjiang Province from 2011 to 2021. This paper revealed the spatiotemporal evolution mechanism and explored the reasons for the differences in the effects of influencing factors. The results were as follows. (1) During the period between 2011 and 2021, the center of gravity of county-level soybean yield in Heilongjiang Province moved towards the northwest over a distance of 16.82 km. The soybean yield in the province experienced a mutation in approximately 2018, from a downward trend to an upward trend. (2) The spatiotemporal hot spots of county-level soybean yield in Heilongjiang Province were concentrated along the line from Hailun to Aihui. The types of hot spots included consecutive hot spots, intensifying hot spots, sporadic hot spots, and new hot spots. (3) The spatiotemporal agglomeration patterns of county-level soybean yield in Heilongjiang Province included only high-high clusters, only low-low clusters, only high-low outliers and multiple types. (4) The temporal changes in soybean yield in various counties of Heilongjiang Province had obvious regional characteristics. (5) Socioeconomic factors had aftereffects on soybean planting decisions. (6) Sunlight hours, the price ratio of local soybeans to local maize, average temperature, the number of soybean patents, the price ratio of imported soybeans to local soybeans, soybean cultivation income, local soybean prices, and the number of newly established soybean enterprises were primary influencing factors. Precipitation and soybean import volume were secondary influencing factors. The income difference between maize and soybeans, crops-hitting disaster area, and maize yield were general influencing factors. This study aims to offer new pathways for alleviating the structural contradiction between soybean supply and demand and to provide a reference for the formulation of national soybean industry policies and food security strategies.