Incidence, Risk Factors, and Outcomes of De Novo Malignancy following Kidney Transplantation

Abstract

Introduction: Post-transplant malignancy is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality following kidney transplantation often emerging after medium- to long-term follow-up. To understand the risk factors for the development of de novo post-transplant malignancy (DPTM), this study aimed to assess the incidence, risk factors, and outcomes of DPTM at a single nephrology centre over two decades. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 963 kidney transplant recipients who underwent kidney transplantation between January 2000 and December 2020 and followed up over a median follow-up of 7.1 years (IQR 3.9–11.4). Cox regression models were used to identify the significant risk factors of DPTM development, the association of DPTM with graft survival, and mortality with a functioning graft. Results: In total, 8.1% of transplant recipients developed DPTM, and the DPTM incidence rate was 14.7 per 100 patient-years. There was a higher mean age observed in the DPTM group (53 vs. 47 years, p < 0.001). The most affected organ systems were genitourinary (32.1%), gastrointestinal (24.4%), and lymphoproliferative (20.5%). Multivariate Cox analysis identified older age at transplant (aHR 9.51, 95%CI: 2.60–34.87, p < 0.001) and pre-existing glomerulonephritis (aHR 3.27, 95%CI: 1.10–9.77, p = 0.03) as significant risk factors for DPTM. Older age was significantly associated with poorer graft survival (aHR 8.71, 95%CI: 3.77–20.20, p < 0.001). When age was excluded from the multivariate Cox model, DPTM emerged as a significant risk factor for poor survival (aHR 1.76, 95%CI: 1.17–2.63, p = 0.006). Conclusion: These findings underscore the need for tailored screening, prevention, and management strategies to address DPTM in an aging and immunosuppressed kidney transplant population.