Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Export Survival from Latin American Countries

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of mobility, as a proxy for social distancing measures, on exports to the United States of America (USA). A mobility index based on Google mobility indicators was constructed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and an Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model was fitted to the data on export survival from a group of Latin American countries (LATAM). Higher mobility levels are associated with an acceleration of the risk of interruption of exports. On average, LATAM shows higher export survival levels compared to other countries. Higher innovation and market concentration favored export survival, while higher levels of Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) are associated with a lower probability of survival. Differences in survival were found between export sectors with regard to machinery and transportation equipment.