A System Dynamics Model of Supply-Side Issues Influencing Beef Consumption in Nigeria

Abstract

The per capita consumption of beef in Nigeria is reducing amidst a rising population that is dependent on beef as a major source of animal protein. In this paper, a system dynamics (SD) model was developed with the aim of testing exploratory policies aimed at reversing this trend. The simulations of various policy tests showed that, of all the policies tested, having a higher carcass yield seems to be the most efficient solution, but its feasibility faces some steep biological and ecological challenges. However, a combination of policies that cuts across the land–cattle–market nexus is necessary to obtain a consumption level that almost meets the World Health Organization (WHO) standards for recommended animal protein intake. Complex inter-linked systems, like beef production and consumption, require a systemic approach that considers dynamic feedback to avoid fixes that fail or shift the burden when making policy decisions.