Does Out-Migration Really Affect Forestry Ecological Security? An Empirical Case Study Based on Heilongjiang Province, China

Abstract

In the new era, coordinating the relationship between population flow and forestry ecological security has become an important challenge. In this study, we take Heilongjiang Province in China as an example, and through the combination of macro data and micro in-depth interviews, we explore whether population mobility really affects the intrinsic mechanism of forestry ecological security from the perspective of population exodus from forest areas. Based on the DPSIR model, we constructed a forestry ecological security evaluation index system, used the TOPSIS multi-objective decision analysis method to quantify the forestry ecological security status from 2000 to 2022, and utilized the impulse response function of the VAR model to explore the dynamic response relationship between population outflow and forestry ecological security. The results of this study show that, firstly, the comprehensive index of forestry ecological security level in Heilongjiang Province exhibits a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2022. Second, forestry ecological security has a lagged effect on population outflow, and population outflow has almost no effect on forestry ecological security at present. Third, while the population outflow of Luobei County reduces the interference of human activities on the natural environment, it also brings about the pressures of insufficient forestry ecological resource management and forestry personnel. The Dongfanghong Forestry Bureau has effectively improved the efficiency of ecological construction and ecological security through the introduction of digitalized and intelligent equipment, which has effectively compensated for the negative impact of population outflow on the reduction in ecological management personnel. These findings will help realize the coordinated development of population, economy and society, and ecology.