Predictive Model of Gait Recovery at One Month after Hip Fracture from a National Cohort of 25,607 Patients: The Hip Fracture Prognosis (HF-Prognosis) Tool

Abstract

The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model of gait recovery after hip fracture. Data was obtained from a sample of 25,607 patients included in the Spanish National Hip Fracture Registry from 2017 to 2019. The primary outcome was recovery of the baseline level of ambulatory capacity. A logistic regression model was developed using 40% of the sample and the model was validated in the remaining 60% of the sample. The predictors introduced in the model were: age, prefracture gait independence, cognitive impairment, anesthetic risk, fracture type, operative delay, early postoperative mobilization, weight bearing, presence of pressure ulcers and destination at discharge. Five groups of patients or clusters were identified by their predicted probability of recovery, including the most common features of each. A probability threshold of 0.706 in the training set led to an accuracy of the model of 0.64 in the validation set. We present an acceptably accurate predictive model of gait recovery after hip fracture based on the patients’ individual characteristics. This model could aid clinicians to better target programs and interventions in this population.