How Effective Is the Green Development Policy of China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt? A Quantitative Evaluation Based on the PMC-Index Model

Abstract

Although many countries around the world, especially China, highlight the strategy of green development, there has been little research evaluating the effectiveness of green development policies in local area. This study explores 16 policy texts with the theme of green development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China. Using the Policy Modeling Consistency Index (PMC-Index) model, the paper establishes a multi-input–output policy table and scientifically and systematically evaluates these policies. The results show that the average PMC index of the 16 policy texts is 6.83, indicating a high overall quality of policy texts. The index identifies two states of policy effectiveness as being good and excellent; 50% of the total texts fall into these categories and do not fall into the category of having a low level of policy effectiveness. Five indicators, including policy timeliness, social benefits, policy audience scope, and incentives and constraints, significantly impact the PMC-Index of the policy. Six representative policy samples were selected and analyzed. The advantages and disadvantages of the policy can be more fully understood by the degree of depression of the PMC’s three-dimensional curved surface (PMC-Surface) model. Finally, the paper provides theoretical recommendations for the optimization of the green development policies.