Projecting the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants and the Vaccination Program on the Fourth Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Korea

Abstract

Vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are currently administered in South Korea; however, vaccine supply is limited. Considering constraints in vaccine supply and the emergence of variant strains, we evaluated the impact of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccination program in reducing incidence, ICU hospitalization, and deaths in South Korea. We developed an age-structured model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission parameterized with Korean demographics and age-specific COVID-19 outcomes. Using our model, we analyzed the impact of the COVID-19 vaccination program during the fourth wave of the pandemic in South Korea in reducing disease burden. We projected that the vaccination program can reduce the overall attack rate to 3.9% from 6.9% without vaccination, over 150 days, starting from 5 July 2021. The highest relative reduction (50%) was observed among individuals aged 50–59 years. Vaccination markedly reduced adverse outcomes, such as ICU hospitalizations and deaths, decreasing them by 45% and 43%, respectively. In the presence of the Delta variant, vaccination is expected to reduce the overall attack rate to 11.9% from 26.9%. Our results indicate that the impact of vaccination can be substantially affected by the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants. Furthermore, herd immunity is unlikely to be achieved with the potential emergence of the Delta variant, inconsistent with the blueprint of the South Korean government.