Climate Change Impacts on Farmland Values in the Southeast United States

Abstract

This study uses the Ricardian (hedonic) approach to estimate the impact of potential climate change on agricultural farmland values in the Southeast U.S. as a distinct agricultural region. Using the Agricultural Resource Management Survey and seasonal county-level climate and data, we find that regional farmland values increase with spring and fall temperatures and fall precipitation and decrease with winter and summer temperatures. Long-term climate change projections predict aggregate farmland value losses of 2.5–5% with differential state-level impacts, ranging from large losses in Florida to significant gains in Virginia. The results are consistent with recent research and can be helpful in policy design and forecasting land use change.