Ship Route Oil Spill Modeling: A Case Study of the Northeast Brazil Event, 2019

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the circulation and chemical processes associated with the deposition of the largest oil spill that reached the northeast coast of Brazil during the second half of 2019. Using the Oil Spill Contingency And Response model (OSCAR), we performed both deterministic and probabilistic simulations of oil spills from tanker ships that were present in the sea in the region at the time. The study used a dataset comprising the latitudinal distribution of oil sightings along the coast between 31 August and 2 December 2019 (box plot analysis) provided by the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA). The total amount of oil that reached the coast during this period (approximately 5000 tons) and the date and location of the first sighting (30 August, in the southern part of the state of Paraíba (PB)) were also used as parameters to assess the results of the 31 simulations conducted for ships en route near the area of interest between July and August 2019. The results indicate that a leak having occurred through a mobile source is the most plausible hypothesis for explaining the observed temporal–spatial arrival of the oil leaks along the Brazilian coastline. We suggest that prevention, monitoring, and international cooperation are essential for reducing the risks of future environmental accidents of the kind analyzed in this study and to protect the environment and communities affected.