A Comprehensive Numerical Model for Reservoir-Induced Earthquake Risk Assessment

Abstract

The assessment of seismic risk and the prevention of earthquake occurrences during reservoir operation present significant challenges in terms of accurate determination. This study aims to address this issue by developing a numerical model. The primary objective is to estimate the vulnerability of different fault types to reservoir impoundment. This model integrates essential parameters such as fault dip and the relative orientation between the reservoir and potential earthquakes, and it is structured within a risk framework using polar coordinates. Through comprehensive computations, we evaluate the alterations in elastic stress and fluid pore pressure resulting from water impoundment. This is achieved by employing a fully coupled two-dimensional poroelastic approach. Furthermore, our model incorporates relevant seismic data to enhance its accuracy. The findings of our study underscore that the critical factor lies in the fault’s precise positioning with respect to the reservoir. The risk associated with a fault is contingent upon both its location and its orientation, emphasizing the importance of these factors in determining hazardous zones.