Impact of Climate Change on Electric Energy Production from Medium-Size Photovoltaic Module Systems Based on RCP Climate Scenarios

Abstract

The impact of climate change is increasingly evident in various domains today and is gaining prominence in scientific inquiries. Climate change also affects the utilisation of renewable energies. The article examines the effects of 21st-century climate change on the annual electric energy production of medium-sized photovoltaic module systems. The study bases its analysis on three possible scenarios: a pessimistic (RCP 8.5), a less pessimistic (RCP 4.5), and an optimistic (RCP 2.6) scenario. The applied Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios were developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to enhance comparability in analyses related to climate change. Compared to older linear models, an innovation utilises a more flexible and multidirectional model. One of the article’s key findings is that, for all three examined settlements, the annual yield of the studied photovoltaic systems will surpass the levels of the base year 2010 by the middle and end of the century. Another significant outcome is that, under the three scenarios analysed, the ratio of annual performance variation to annual global radiation variation shows substantial differences by the middle and end of the century compared to the 2010 baseline. In the optimistic scenario, this ratio exceeds 1, whereas in the pessimistic and less pessimistic scenarios, it falls below 1. This ratio does not directly inform about the annual production—which increases in all cases—but rather about the changes in efficiency. These efficiency changes are influenced by the rise in annual average temperatures and the fluctuation in sunny hours yearly. The third finding reveals that under the climate change pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5), the efficiency decrease is less adverse than in the less pessimistic scenario (RCP 4.5).