Waters of Contention: The GERD and Its Impact on Nile Basin Cooperation and Conflict

Abstract

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River has become a focal point in the fields of water diplomacy, economics, and environmental considerations in the Nile Basin. Announced during the Arab Spring in 2011, the GERD aims to address Ethiopia’s significant energy shortfall and foster regional economic growth by potentially doubling the country’s electricity output. However, this ambition has heightened tensions with downstream countries, especially Egypt and Sudan, which rely heavily on the Nile for their water needs. This paper examines the ongoing conflict surrounding the GERD, focusing on the deadlock situation despite considerable scholarly attention to its economic, political, and environmental dimensions. The analysis presented in this paper reveals the roots of contention by analyzing past treaties and the present negotiation status, illustrating the complex interplay between development goals, environmental sustainability, and regional water security. The paper advocates for a revised legal framework that moves beyond past agreements towards a more inclusive, cooperative management strategy for the Nile’s waters. It proposes the development of a new treaty between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, grounded in their 2015 Declaration of Principles agreement and inspired by successful international dispute resolutions. It also discusses the potential of neutral third-party interventions to facilitate unbiased negotiations grounded in the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution, emphasizing the importance of equitable and sustainable water governance. In essence, this research calls for a collaborative approach to resolve the GERD conflict, emphasizing the need for agreements that harmonize developmental ambitions with the water security of the Nile Basin nations.