A Robust Design-Based Expert System for Feature Selection and COVID-19 Pandemic Prediction in Japan

Abstract

Expert systems are frequently used to make predictions in various areas. However, the practical robustness of expert systems is not as good as expected, mainly due to the fact that finding an ideal system configuration from a specific dataset is a challenging task. Therefore, how to optimize an expert system has become an important issue of research. In this paper, a new method called the robust design-based expert system is proposed to bridge this gap. The technical process of this system consists of data initialization, configuration generation, a genetic algorithm (GA) framework for feature selection, and a robust mechanism that helps the system find a configuration with the highest robustness. The system will finally obtain a set of features, which can be used to predict a pandemic based on given data. The robust mechanism can increase the efficiency of the system. The configuration for training is optimized by means of a genetic algorithm (GA) and the Taguchi method. The effectiveness of the proposed system in predicting epidemic trends is examined using a real COVID-19 dataset from Japan. For this dataset, the average prediction accuracy was 60%. Additionally, 10 representative features were also selected, resulting in a selection rate of 67% with a reduction rate of 33%. The critical features for predicting the epidemic trend of COVID-19 were also obtained, including new confirmed cases, ICU patients, people vaccinated, population, population density, hospital beds per thousand, middle age, aged 70 or older, and GDP per capital. The main contribution of this paper is two-fold: Firstly, this paper has bridged the gap between the pandemic research and expert systems with robust predictive performance. Secondly, this paper proposes a feature selection method for extracting representative variables and predicting the epidemic trend of a pandemic disease. The prediction results indicate that the system is valuable to healthcare authorities and can help governments get hold of the epidemic trend and strategize their use of healthcare resources.