Machine Learning Techniques to Predict Timeliness of Care among Lung Cancer Patients

Abstract

Delays in the assessment, management, and treatment of lung cancer patients may adversely impact prognosis and survival. This study is the first to use machine learning techniques to predict the quality and timeliness of care among lung cancer patients, utilising data from the Victorian Lung Cancer Registry (VLCR) between 2011 and 2022, in Victoria, Australia. Predictor variables included demographic, clinical, hospital, and geographical socio-economic indices. Machine learning methods such as random forests, k-nearest neighbour, neural networks, and support vector machines were implemented and evaluated using 20% out-of-sample cross validations via the area under the curve (AUC). Optimal model parameters were selected based on 10-fold cross validation. There were 11,602 patients included in the analysis. Evaluated quality indicators included, primarily, overall proportion achieving “time from referral date to diagnosis date ≤ 28 days” and proportion achieving “time from diagnosis date to first treatment date (any intent) ≤ 14 days”. Results showed that the support vector machine learning methods performed well, followed by nearest neighbour, based on out-of-sample AUCs of 0.89 (in-sample = 0.99) and 0.85 (in-sample = 0.99) for the first indicator, respectively. These models can be implemented in the registry databases to help healthcare workers identify patients who may not meet these indicators prospectively and enable timely interventions.