Changes in the Urban Hydrological Cycle of the Future Using Low-Impact Development Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios

Abstract

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios have been used for various studies in the field of climate change. In this regard, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario has been newly introduced to examine climate change impacts, but relevant research is still insufficient. For this reason, new SSP scenarios with a combination of Low-Impact Development (LID) techniques are applied to predict rainfall-runoff efficiency and hydrological variation. The inter-model variability in the monthly average precipitation for each GCM according to new SSP scenarios under future climate was investigated. Based on the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, the results show precipitation changes with an increase of 4.8% and 12.3%, respectively. Furthermore, precipitation projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios are predicted to increase by 13.9% and 20.6%, respectively, indicating that the magnitude of precipitation increases with new climate change scenarios. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) during the future period indicated that LID applications will reduce runoff compared with scenarios with no LID application. In particular, the introduction of permeable pavement and infiltration trenches revealed the best runoff reduction performance among the combinations of LID techniques considered. In addition, this study projected changes in the urban hydrological cycle for the climate over the next 30 years to reflect the implementation of urban hydrological cycle plans, which take approximately 10 years. Overall, it was found that, in the future, LID applications will contribute to improving the sustainability of the urban hydrological cycle of the study area. The results of our study can provide future directions for water management strategies in Korea.