Evaluation of Past and Future Climate Trends under CMIP6 Scenarios for the UBNB (Abay), Ethiopia

Abstract

Climate predictions using recent and high-resolution climate models are becoming important for effective decision-making and for designing appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Due to highly variable climate and data scarcity of the upper Blue Nile Basin, previous studies did not detect specific unified trends. This study discusses, the past and future climate projections under CMIP6-SSPs scenarios for the basin. For the models’ validation and selection, reanalysis data were used after comparing with area-averaged ground observational data. Quantile mapping systematic bias correction and Mann–Kendall trend test were applied to evaluate the trends of selected CMIP6 models during the 21st century. Results revealed that, ERA5 for temperature and GPCC for precipitation have best agreement with the basin observational data, MRI-ESM2-0 for temperature and BCC-CSM-2MR for precipitation were selected based on their highest performance. The MRI-ESM2-0 mean annual maximum temperature for the near (long)-term period shows an increase of 1.1 (1.5) °C, 1.3 (2.2) °C, 1.2 (2.8) °C, and 1.5 (3.8) °C under the four SSPs. On the other hand, the BCC-CSM-2MR precipitation projections show slightly (statistically insignificant) increasing trend for the near (long)-term periods by 5.9 (6.1)%, 12.8 (13.7)%, 9.5 (9.1)%, and 17.1(17.7)% under four SSPs scenarios.