Analysis of Rainfall Time Series with Application to Calculation of Return Periods

Abstract

This paper presents a study of the characteristics of rainfall in a typical Mediterranean climate, characterized by infrequent and irregular rain in the territorial area and its intensity. One of the main components of this type of climate is short-duration and high-intensity rain events that cause a large amount of damage to property and human lives, seriously affecting the operation of infrastructure and the activity of society in general. The objective of this study was to design a methodology based on peak over threshold (POT) analysis. This methodology allows us to establish reference precipitation values and more approximate return periods in the absence of sufficiently extensive historical precipitation series. In addition, the frequency of these extreme events or return periods is established. The characteristics of the precipitation regime make direct analysis difficult. Thus, the functions of the probability distributions underlying the described phenomena are improved.