Banking Sector Profitability: Does Household Income Matter?

Abstract

Household incomes, their level and dynamics are one of the factors that ensure the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. At the same time, stable development of the banking sector, which is impossible without steady earnings, determines economic growth, which also positively affects reaching the Sustainable Development Goals. The paper examines the impact of household income on the return on assets of the banking sector in Russia using annual time series from 2003 to 2019. The study was conducted using formalized economic and mathematical methods of analysis by linear regression with least squares tests on the significance of the model, with tests for redundancy of insignificant variables (Wald test), Ramsey test on the functionality of the model, White and Breusch Pagan test for heteroscedasticity (heterogeneity of observations) and multicollinearity by method of inflation factors, graphic method. The Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model was used. The results show that (1) an increase in the growth rate of household income and deposits in the non-financial sector has a positive effect on the return on assets of the banking sector; (2) an increase in the growth rate of the price of Brent crude oil and non-performing loans negatively affect the dependent variable; and (3) the regions that have the greatest (positive and negative) impact on profitability of whole bank sector in Russia were identified. Increasing household incomes and eliminating inequality in the incomes of the population of different regions will have a positive impact not only on social well-being but will also provide the banking sector with the opportunity for profitable operation and create conditions for sustainable growth. Our conclusions are useful for the regulator and individual banks and can be taken into account when developing and implementing policies aimed at sustainable development.