Number Preference as a Source of Measurement Error in the U.S. National Forest Inventory

Abstract

Number preference, i.e., the human tendency to gravitate toward or away from specific numbers, is a potential source of measurement error in forest inventory. Identifying its presence is an important step to ensure unbiased results. This study evaluated U.S. national forest inventory data for number preference and identified factors that influence the proportion of tree cull volume, tree diameter, tree height, and seedling count observations ending with the digit zero or five (ED0,5) and seedling count observations that were multiples of four (M4). Two-sided hypothesis tests determined that ED0,5 occurred significantly more frequently than expected by chance for all metrics tested, though not in every inventory region of the country nor to the same degree. Consistently, tree-level ED0,5 was more likely when metrics were estimated visually rather than measured instrumentally. Logistic regression indicated that the effect of species class, species type, tree status, treetop status, and stem size on tree-level ED0,5 and the effect of plot-level water depth on seedling count ED0,5 also varied by region. Though the effect was small, findings suggest that some inventory regions may be employing an approved multiplicative shortcut that results in a greater-than-expected proportion of M4 observations among seedling counts.