Forecasting the Impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on International Tourist Arrivals to Langkawi, Malaysia: A PostCOVID-19 Future

Abstract

This research first aims to forecast tourist arrivals to Langkawi, Malaysia from its top three source markets, namely, China, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom, between 2020 and 2022. Using the annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth of those three countries, the study seeks to investigate the impact of GDP on tourist arrivals from these countries to Langkawi in the context of post-COVID-19 scenarios. The study uses expert modelers, namely, ARIMA models and Holt’s linear models, to find the best fit model. Then, linear regression analysis was conducted to assess the impact of GDP on tourist arrivals in Langkawi from the said three countries. The results from the Holt linear model predicted a significant increase in the number of tourist arrivals from China and Saudi Arabia from 2020–2022. In contrast, the number of forecasted tourist arrivals from the United Kingdom would be on a decreasing trend from 2020–2022. It is also predicted that GDP growth will influence the tourist arrival trends from China and Saudi Arabia, but not for UK tourists. In other words, a speedy rate of recovery in the number of tourists from the UK to Langkawi is forecasted for once international travel restrictions are lifted, as the world eases into the post-pandemic period.