Warming Climate-Induced Changes in Lithuanian River Ice Phenology

Abstract

Due to rising surface air temperatures, river ice is shrinking dramatically in the Northern Hemisphere. Ice cover during the cold season causes fundamental changes in river ecosystems and has important implications for nearby communities and industries. Changes caused by climate warming, therefore, affect the sustainability of key resources, livelihoods, and traditional practices. Thus far, too little attention has been paid to research into the phenomenon of river ice in the Baltic States. Since the observational data of the last sixty years are currently available, we took advantage of the unique opportunity to assess ice regime changes in the gauged rivers by comparing two climatological standard normals. By applying statistical methods (Mann–Kendall, Pettitt, SNHT, Buishand, von Neumann, and Wilcoxon rank sum tests), this study determined drastic changes in ice phenology parameters (freeze-up date, ice break-up date, and ice cover duration) of Lithuanian rivers in the last thirty-year period. The dependence of the selected parameters on local climatic factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns was identified. It was established that the sum of negative air temperatures, as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, and Arctic Oscillation indices, have the greatest influence on the ice regime of Lithuanian rivers.