Habitat Distribution Pattern of Rare and Endangered Plant Magnolia wufengensis in China under Climate Change

Abstract

Magnolia wufengensis is a newly discovered rare and endangered species endemic to China. The primary objective of this study is to find the most suitable species distribution models (SDMs) by comparing the different SDMs to predict their habitat distribution for protection and introduction in China under climate change. SDMs are important tools for studying species distribution patterns under climate change, and different SDMs have different simulation effects. Thus, to identify the potential habitat for M. wufengensis currently and in the 2050s (2041–2060) and 2070s (2061–2080) under different climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) in China, four SDMs, Maxent, GARP, Bioclim, and Domain, were first used to compare the predicted habitat and explore the dominant environmental factors. The four SDMs predicted that the potential habitats were mainly south of 40° N and east of 97° E in China, with a high distribution potential under current climate conditions. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) (0.9479 ± 0.0080) was the highest, and the Kappa value (0.8113 ± 0.0228) of the consistency test and its performance in predicting the potential suitable habitat were the best in the Maxent model. The minimum temperature of the coldest month (−13.36–9.84 °C), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (−6.06–12.66 °C), annual mean temperature (≥4.49 °C), and elevation (0–2803.93 m), were the dominant factors. In the current climate scenario, areas of 46.60 × 104 km2 (4.85%), 122.82 × 104 km2 (12.79%), and 96.36 × 104 km2 (10.03%), which were mainly in central and southeastern China, were predicted to be potential suitable habitats of high, moderate, and low suitability, respectively. The predicted suitable habitats will significantly change by the 2050s (2040–2060) and 2070s (2060–2080), suggesting that M. wufengensis will increase in high-elevation areas and shift northeast with future climate change. The comparison of current and future suitable habitats revealed declines of approximately 4.53%–29.98% in highly suitable habitats and increases of approximately 6.45%–27.09% and 0.77%–21.86% in moderately and lowly suitable habitats, respectively. In summary, these results provide a theoretical basis for the response to climate change, protection, precise introduction, cultivation, and rational site selection of M. wufengensis in the future.