The Main Impact Factors for the Propagation from Meteorological Drought to Socio-Economic Drought from the Perspective of a Small Area, Based on a Practical Survey

Abstract

Drought is one of the most frequent types of natural disasters in the world, and it has been classified into several different categories. Generally, meteorological drought is considered to be the beginning of a drought disaster, while socio-economic drought is the possible ultimate result. However, controversy remains around the main impact factors in the propagation from meteorological drought to socio-economic drought over the past decades. In this study, a comprehensive investigation of the 2022 drought event in the city of Lishui, China was conducted to build a model for analyzing the main impact factors in the propagation from meteorological drought to socio-economic drought. The results showed that the 2022 drought event had a great impact on the city’s socio-economic activities. According to governmental reports on socio-economic drought and basic information on water sources, a random forest attribution analysis model was built. The model demonstrated a great performance in distinguishing whether a socio-economic drought had occurred, with an accuracy of 0.9935, a true positive rate of 0.9489 and a false positive rate of 0.0021. Additionally, the variables related to water sources—including drainage area, covered population and daily water supply volume—were found to be more important than the other variables related to meteorological conditions in the model, meaning that the capacity of water sources is the main impact factor in the propagation between meteorological drought and socio-economic drought. In other words, it is feasible to prevent the propagation of meteorological drought to socio-economic drought through water conservancy engineering construction.