Hourly Power Consumption Forecasting Using RobustSTL and TCN

Abstract

Power consumption forecasting is a crucial need for power management to achieve sustainable energy. The power demand is increasing over time, while the forecasting of power consumption possesses challenges with nonlinearity patterns and various noise in the datasets. To this end, this paper proposes the RobustSTL and temporal convolutional network (TCN) model to forecast hourly power consumption. Through the RobustSTL, instead of standard STL, this decomposition method can extract time series data despite containing dynamic patterns, various noise, and burstiness. The trend, seasonality, and remainder components obtained from the decomposition operation can enhance prediction accuracy by providing significant information from the dataset. These components are then used as input for the TCN model applying deep learning for forecasting. TCN employing dilated causal convolutions and residual blocks to extract long-term data patterns outperforms recurrent networks in time series forecasting studies. To assess the proposed model, this paper conducts a comparison experiment between the proposed model and counterpart models. The result shows that the proposed model can grasp the rules of historical time series data related to hourly power consumption. Our proposed model overcomes the counterpart schemes in MAPE, MAE, and RMSE metrics. Additionally, the proposed model obtains the best results in precision, recall, and F1-score values. The result also indicates that the predicted data can fit the pattern of the actual data.