Sensitivity Analysis and Technology Evaluation for a Roadable Personal Air Vehicle at the Conceptual Design Stage

Abstract

In this study, the technology identification, evaluation, and selection (TIES) method was implemented to explore an optimum design space appropriate for a personal air vehicle (PAV) at the conceptual design stage. A morphological matrix was employed to identify possible alternative configurations and performance targets. The Microsoft Excel add-in JMP, a commercial statistical tool, and a PAV sizing tool developed for this study were used for modelling and simulation. After the screening test, seven design variables having significant impacts on the design were finally chosen, specifically the range, maximum speed, cruise speed, cruise altitude, passengers, takeoff ground roll, and stall speed. Response surface equations (RSEs) were created as a function of the seven design variables. The generated RSEs were then used to perform a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to explore a feasible design space. As a result, it was confirmed that all seven design variables can be employed for an optimization process. In addition, k-factor and technology sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate applicable technologies quantitatively. Consequently, the selected set includes a flow circulation flap, leading edge blowing, a nanocoating, liquid metal, and an advanced composite material, which are technologies that greatly influenced the target criteria. Furthermore, the target value variations were analyzed as the k factors changed.