How Does Local Real Estate Investment Influence Neighborhood PM2.5 Concentrations? A Spatial Econometric Analysis

Abstract

Real estate investment has been an important driving force in China’s economic growth in recent years, and the relationship between real estate investment and PM2.5 concentrations has been attracting widespread attention. Based on spatial econometric modelling, this paper explores the relationships between real estate investment and PM2.5 concentrations using multi-source panel data from 30 provinces in China between 1987 and 2017. The results demonstrate that compared with static spatial panel modelling, using a dynamic spatial Durbin lag model (DSDLM) more accurately reflects the influences of real estate investment on PM2.5 concentrations in China, and that PM2.5 concentrations show significant superposition effects and spillover effects. Moreover, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between real estate investment and PM2.5 concentrations in the Eastern and Central Regions of China. At the national level, the impacts of real estate investment on land urbanization and PM2.5 concentrations first increased and then decreased over time. The key implications of this analysis are as follows. (1) it highlights the need for a unified PM2.5 monitoring platform among Chinese regions; (2) the quality of population urbanization rather than land urbanization should be given more attention; and (3) the speed of construction of green cities and building of green transportation systems and green town systems should be increased.